Automatically reinstating UN sanctions against Iran if the Islamic republic violates a potential nuclear agreement will be nearly impossible if Russia and China have their way, experts say.
The Obama administration claims United Nations sanctions will be “snapped back” in case of an Iranian violation, but Russia and China want to maintain their veto power on the Security Council by blocking an “automatic trigger” that would reinstate the sanctions.
Some in Washington say “snapping” back sanctions might mean passing a resolution through the 15-nation U.N. Security Council if Russia and China are able to place barriers up during the Iran nuclear talks.
The Security Council’s five permanent members are China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States, which each has the power to veto any “substantive” draft Council resolution, irrespective of international support for the draft resolution at hand.
If sanctions on Iran are lifted as a result of an agreement, but Iran later violates the agreement, retrieving those sanctions again could require a U.N. resolution that Russia and China would likely to veto.
Russia is known to oppose the automatic trigger mechanism, because it undermines its veto power, but U.S., British, French and German officials are pushing for the measure as part of the framework.
“Russia has never been ready to give up its veto power and the status that gives it,” Mark Fitzpatrick, of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London told Reuters.
“It doesn’t want to forgo any future decision to play a role in either impeding American diplomacy or possibly playing a card positively in the future,” he added. “They don’t want to give up leverage now that could be useful in the future.”
Additionally, Russia and China would not have much of an incentive to push sanctions back on Iran after lifting them. Moscow is already preparing the to send missile system deliveries to Iran and started an oil-for-goods trade, Reuters reports.
President Vladimir Putin signed a decree, the Kremlin said, halting the self-imposed embargo on delivering to the Islamic Republic S-300 anti-missile rocket system.
China is also readying a natural gas pipeline between Pakistan and Iran, once the restrictions are loosened.