The outcome of Election Day 2020 seems like it could be anybody’s game at times — but there are only four possible outcomes that could have big impacts on both parties, according to Republican strategist Bruce Mehlman Tuesday.
A Democratic win could return power to the party’s moderates, or bring on “Wokepocalypse,” according to “The 2020 Elections and the Future of American Politics,” a presentation compiled by Mehlman of lobbying firm Mehlman Castagnetti Rosen & Thomas.
Meanwhile, a win for President Donald Trump could precipitate losses, like a 2022 Senate flip, thanks to change-hungry voters, or cement Trump’s heirs apparent like Vice President Mike Pence as the country’s leaders in the coming years. (RELATED: Trump Doubles Down Amid Criticism From Left And Right For ‘Why Don’t They Go Back’ Tweet)
Mehlman’s presentation got a shoutout in Tuesday’s Politico Influence newsletter, and not just for the image of Democratic New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sitting on the Iron Throne from “Game of Thrones.”
Another epic slide deck from @bpmehlman. Check it out: https://t.co/hqBh7qGrk5 pic.twitter.com/HItQqCSKA4
— Patrick W. Watson (@PatrickW) July 15, 2019
Mehlman said while he has a circulation list for his quarterly predictions, he can’t nail down how many people see and share each one.
“Our web counter said [a previous presentation] explaining the 2016 elections has been downloaded more than 300,000 times. But that got picked up by a ton of media and the Twitterverse too,” Mehlman told the Daily Caller News Foundation in an email Tuesday.
What’s In Store For Joe Biden?
The stats may stack up against former Vice President Joe Biden, who’s leading the Democratic field even after a dip in the polls following his less-than-stellar debate performance in June, Mehlman said.
Biden could actually be disadvantaged by his 44 years in government. For example, in the post-Watergate and post-Vietnam War, candidates with more years in Washington have failed to clinch the presidency nine times out of 11, Mehlman calculated. (RELATED: Biden’s Cancer Nonprofit Shutters — Could Be Closed For Good)
Democratic presidential candidates Marianne Williamson, former Colorado governor John Hickenlooper, former tech executive Andrew Yang, South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg, former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand take part in the second night of the first Democratic presidential debate on June 27, 2019 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Compound that with progressives’ pattern of attacking Biden for votes from the 1980s and 1990s that no longer represent the liberal viewpoint, and he and the rest of the Democratic establishment could be in trouble.
Biden is unequivocally a member of the Democratic establishment, and this could also bode poorly for him, since disruptor Democratic candidates like Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama tend to win and establishment candidates like John Kerry and Hillary Clinton tend to lose, Mehlman wrote.
hadn’t thought about it, but @bpmehlman points out in his latest deck that an establishment dem hasn’t won a presidential general since at least 1976 https://t.co/YPbkSeB64F pic.twitter.com/9lSAMLPFBy
— Ali Breland (@alibreland) July 16, 2019
How Do Things Look For Trump?
Mehlman also detailed the pluses and minuses facing Trump in 2020. His fundraising is through the roof, and Trump currently sits in a safe spot for incumbents with no recession to make voters blame him for their pocketbook issues.
But that could change because of abundant “recession triggers” lying dormant in his administration’s policy, Mehlman said. The strategist pointed to the risk of another federal government shutdown, trade wars with the European Union, China and Mexico as well as “war wars” that could come from increased tension with Iran.
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