The 10-day motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota, led to over 265,000 additional cases of COVID-19 nationwide, a report from the IZA Institute of Labor Economics found.
The event, which hosted almost 500,000 people from Aug. 7-16, was responsible for 19% of new U.S. coronavirus cases throughout August, according to the IZA report, and led to a 35% increase of South Dakota’s total cases. The report used anonymous cellphone data (a method that has been used by the Centers for Disease Control
to study social distancing behavior) to track individuals who attended the Sturgis rally, then compared the data to the locations of newly confirmed coronavirus cases.
“We find generally higher rates of COVID-19 cases from the counties that contributed higher inflows to the rally,” the report said.
In response to the report’s findings, Kristi Noem, the state’s Republican governor, called it “fiction,” and said that it was “nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis.” (RELATED: Kristi Noem Says Democrats And ‘Their Radical Supporters’ Will Destroy America)
This report isn’t science. It’s fiction.
Under the guise of academic research, it’s nothing short of an attack on those who exercised their personal freedom to attend Sturgis. (THREAD 1/) https://t.co/3zkmabJV2y
— Governor Kristi Noem (@govkristinoem) September 8, 2020
The report, self-described as “preliminary work” that was “circulated to encourage discussion,” found that the event led to over $12 billion in public health costs, citing limited social distancing and optional mask wearing as contributing factors. The report noted that the estimate may be high due to “externality costs.”
Though “this number includes COVID-19 infections to individuals who attended the rally (and may have internalized public health risks) – we nonetheless conclude that local and nationwide contagion from this event was substantial,” the report said.
New @SDSUCHEPS paper by Dhaval Dave @FriedsonAndrew @Drew_McNichols & Joe Sabia (“Contagion Externality of Super-spreader”) finds Sturgis Motorcycle Rally was a local & nationwide spreader of COVID-19. Estimated public health cost: ~$12B
See: https://t.co/uByz9ja6hL pic.twitter.com/jdLlLkwRek
— CHEPS (@SDSUCHEPS) September 6, 2020
Dr. Joshua Clayton, the state’s epidemiologist, called the study “white paper,” saying that the report’s credibility suffered due to it not being peer reviewed. He also referred to the state’s recent school openings as possible contributing factors to South Dakota’s rising case count, Keloland reported.
His comments were echoed by Secretary of Health Kim Malsam-Rysdon, who said that people “shouldn’t put too much stock into models,” according to Keloland.
Devin Pope, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said that while the rally likely contributed somewhat to the state’s rising case count, “the results are likely biased upward” and called for additional peer reviews to further verify the results.
IZA did not immediately respond to inquiries about its methodology from the Daily Caller News Foundation.
As of Tuesday, South Dakota had recorded over 15,000 cases, almost 5,000 of which were confirmed in August, according to a Johns Hopkins University database.
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