Potential Republican Arizona Senate candidate Kari Lake is struggling in polls for a critical 2024 race, finishing third according to a survey by Noble Predictive Insights.
Incumbent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, who left the Democratic party in December to become an independent, finished second in the poll, while Democratic candidate Rep. Ruben Gallego leads with 34 percent of the vote. Democrats, including independents like Sinema who caucus with the party, hold a 51-49 majority in the Senate, and Republicans are expected to flip West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s seat.
#AZSen: New numbers from Noble Predictive Insights
Gallego 34
Sinema 26
Lake 25
Undecided 15(July 13-17; 1,000 RVs; +/-3.1%) https://t.co/mQoFIqUWoY
— Matt Holt (@mattholt33) August 3, 2023
A victory by Gallego or Sinema would help maintain Democratic control of the Senate, but Democratic would likely prefer Gallego over the incumbent, who broke ranks on several key votes. (RELATED: ‘The Most Compelling Political Science Experiment’: Experts Weigh In On Potential Three-Way Senate Race In Arizona)
Lake ran in the gubernatorial race in 2022 and lost to current Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, who flipped the governorship blue after two terms under Republican Gov. Doug Ducey. After the election loss, Lake repeatedly claimed that the election was stolen from her and filed lawsuits attempting to overturn the result.
Some observers have speculated that former President Donald Trump is considering Lake to be his 2024 running mate.
Even though she is the presumptive Republican nominee, Lake has not officially announced her candidacy for the senator’s seat, but reports have claimed that she is set to declare at some point this year.
Other possible GOP contenders for Sinema’s seat include former Senate candidate Blake Masters, who lost his 2022 race against Sen. Mark Kelly and has not yet publicly declared his candidacy for 2024, and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who launched his bid in December.