CNN Political Director David Chalian laid out Friday a bleak electoral map for President Joe Biden, saying the president would have to “claw” back a few states if he wants to win.
Former President Donald Trump currently leads Biden in several key swing states, with a recent poll by CNN/SSRS finding Trump leading Biden by 10 points among registered voters in Michigan and by 5 points in Georgia. Voters in both states gave Biden poor approval ratings on issues like job performance, policies and mental acuity.
Trump won both states in 2016 but lost both to Biden by slim margins.
Chalian painted a bleak picture for Biden, arguing the president would have to “claw” back some states Trump is currently leading in to win.
“Just to remind people where we left off in the road to 270 in 2020 with Joe Biden’s victory at 306 electoral votes to Donald Trump’s 232, if you look at the breakdown of states in our Electoral College outlook today, what you see here is Donald Trump with 272 electoral votes based on the states that are either solidly in his corner or leaning in his direction. Joe Biden down to 225 electoral votes with the blue states that are either deep blue, solidly leaning in his direction, or the light blue leaning his way and you’ve got these yellow states that are true toss-ups in this race right now,” Chalian said.
“I think it shows three things. One, this is gonna be an extraordinarily close presidential race again. Joe Biden is struggling, at this start of the year, to re-create his victorious coalition on the electoral map from 2020, and that Donald Trump is indeed as a potential Republican nominee very much in the hunt for a return to the White House.” (RELATED: ‘A Great Map’: Here’s How The GOP Could Win Back Control Of The Senate In 2024)
“It’s going to come down to seven, six, seven states almost no matter what. Trump can definitely win. What changes this current snapshot?” host Phil Mattingly asked.
“Right now we have states here that, obviously, Joe Biden won that currently are leaning in Donald Trump’s direction. So imagine if you will, here Michigan, we have rated as leaning Republican at the moment, this is based on polling and reporting and conversations with people in the state, but if that reverts back to its normal sort of toss-up status, you immediately see that Donald Trump goes down below the 270, is at 257. Imagine if the same thing were to happen with Georgia, which Biden won last time, and Nevada again a state we have leaning to Trump right now but that Biden won last time, and you see it’s 225 to 235 and you see where the battleground is going to be here, Phil,” Chalian said.
“So it is not impossible to imagine that Joe Biden will have some of these states that he won last time come back into more competitive territory at the moment though, he’s got to win everything we have rated as a toss-up and actually claw back at least one of those states that’s leaning in Trump’s direction that he won in 2020.”
“Yeah, it is a bumpy path ahead, but one that does exist,” Mattingly said.
A Morning Consult/Bloomberg survey published recently found Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.