The government wouldn’t cook the books on its monthly jobs reports, would it?
I mean, why would the administration benefit from making the economy seem much stronger than it actually is?
As it turns out, the Bureau of Labor Statistics “corrected” every single monthly jobs report from 2023. And these “adjustments” lowered the overall number of jobs created in 2023 by nearly half a million — a total of 439,000 jobs that never really happened. Here’s how it worked.
First, the monthly jobs report shows a higher-than-expected number. Everyone reacts. The White House issues self-congratulatory statements. The finance markets celebrate. Then, in subsequent months, small line items are included stating that previous jobs reports have been adjusted downward.
The most recent jobs report, which showed an unexpectedly high 216,000 jobs created by this economy, included a “correction” of previous months that lowered the number of jobs created in those months by 71,000 — one-fifth of the total initially reported.
Imagine if your accountant came to you every month and said “oops — you’ve actually made 20 percent less in the last several months.” And these downward revisions came at the height of the Christmas hiring season, meaning we’ve had the most anemic Christmas job market in decades.
Those of us in the small business “Freedom Economy” have known this for months. Our monthly survey of over 70,000 Freedom Economy small businesses has found that these business owners have shelved new hiring and are struggling to tread water.
And our research here at RedBalloon shows that the US economy would be four million jobs higher, if not for the pandemic and government shutdowns.
That’s despite the White House’s daily assertions that the economy is strong.
But, there is one area where hiring is booming — government. In fact, new government jobs now comprise one out of every four jobs created last year. What kind of free market economy do we have when government accounts for 25 percent of jobs, and the other 75 percent have to work overtime to pay taxes to support those government jobs? One that’s not as “free” as we thought.
Why would a troubled administration game the job numbers coming into an election year? Well, that wouldn’t be the first iron-clad precedent that’s been shattered.
That’s why we launched last year, in partnership with Public Square, the Freedom Economy Index, a monthly survey of 70,000 small businesses. So far, the results have been spot-on in predicting future economic activity.
Small businesses have told us they put the brakes on hiring new employees in mid-summer. Since then, they’ve held their cards, waiting to see if stability would emerge in the economy, particularly with regard to inflation.
Additionally, small businesses report that, despite government numbers to the contrary, inflation continues to devastate their businesses and their customers. Supplier prices continue to skyrocket, and many businesses aren’t even sure they can last another six months.
In the most recent survey, 70 percent of these small businesses report that their employees are falling behind financially in this economy. That’s a tough statistic.
These conditions force small businesses to wring waste from every facet of their businesses. At RedBalloon, we’ve seen a surge of employers looking for job seekers who are much more aligned with their corporate culture and mission. They can’t afford a bad hire on their payrolls. There’s no margin for error.
The bottom line is that businesses need reliable, accurate data upon which to make critical decisions. Government numbers were the gold standard, but like so many other norms that have been crushed by this administration, government numbers now must be treated with a high degree of skepticism.
And because accuracy in data analytics matters much more than it ever has, the future of America’s small business community may hang in the balance.
Andrew Crapuchettes, is the founder and CEO of RedBalloon, which was founded in 2021 as the solution to the ever-growing problem of government overreach and “cancel culture” invading the American workplace.
The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are those of the author and do not reflect the official position of the Daily Caller.