- Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-Te won in Taiwan’s elections on Saturday, promising to promote independence and oppose the Chinese Communist Party.
- Lai’s election puts the U.S. in the difficult position of trying to maintain ties with Taiwan while avoiding provoking Beijing, which has vowed to “reunify” with the island and condemns those who oppose that goal, according to foreign policy experts.
- “Taiwan is the most sensitive part of U.S.-China relations from Beijing’s perspective,” Heritage Foundation senior China fellow Michael Cunningham told the Daily Caller News Foundation. “Whenever a DPP president is in office, that causes strain between the U.S. and China.”
The result of Saturday’s presidential election in Taiwan could put further strain on an already fragile relationship between the U.S. and Beijing, experts told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) candidate Lai Ching-Te won in Taiwan’s presidential elections on Saturday, beating out Beijing-friendly candidates and earning a consecutive third term for his party. Lai’s firm stance against the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and push for Taiwanese independence, puts the United States in the difficult position of trying to maintain ties with Taiwan while avoiding provoking Beijing, which has vowed to “reunify” with the island and condemns those who oppose that goal. (RELATED: ‘Victory For Democracy’: Taiwan Voters Ignore China’s Warnings To Pick Next President)
“Taiwan is the most sensitive part of U.S.-China relations from Beijing’s perspective,” Heritage Foundation senior China fellow Michael Cunningham told the DCNF, noting that Lai’s election would stress that relationship. “Whenever a DPP president is in office, that causes strain between the U.S. and China.”
We strongly deplore&oppose @StateDept statement on the election in China’s Taiwan region. It violates the one-China principle, the three China-US joint communiqués&the US own commitment to maintaining only cultural, commercial&other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.
— Spokesperson发言人办公室 (@MFA_China) January 14, 2024
Tensions between the U.S. and China have risen sharply in recent years, in part because of the U.S.’s cooperative efforts with Taiwan. Former House Speakers’ Nancy Pelosi and Kevin McCarthy both met with Taiwanese leadership in late 2022 and early 2023 respectively, and in both instances, China ramped up its military aggression around Taiwan in retaliation.
Nerves between the two countries were stressed further after the Biden administration shot down a Chinese spy balloon hovering over the U.S. in February 2023, which President Joe Biden called a “great embarrassment” for Chinese “dictator” President Xi Jinping. At this point, China had already cut off some communication lines with the U.S., and a series of diplomatic trips by Biden administration officials over the summer of 2023 did little to alleviate existing tensions.
Biden and Xi had a rare meeting at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) conference in California in November, where the two found common ground on several issues, including restoring military communication lines. However, Biden abruptly called Xi a “dictator” again after the meeting ended, provoking more ire from Beijing.
Although the U.S. maintains a “one-China” policy and does not view Taiwan independently, China has accused the U.S. of collaborating with Taiwan and its “separatist forces,” a term Beijing uses frequently to describe the DPP and Lai, according to Axios. China previously warned the U.S. against supporting Taiwan’s democratic elections or helping Lai in any fashion.
China’s sensitivity on the issue was demonstrated after U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a congratulatory statement to Lai on Saturday. Blinken praised Taiwan’s democratic electoral process and expressed optimism about working with Lai’s administration to further the “unofficial” U.S.-Taiwan relationship.
Blinken’s careful language was still met with reproach from Beijing, who said his statement “seriously violates” agreeances on the one-China policy and warned it sends a “gravely wrong signal” to those who advocate for Taiwan’s independence. Beijing reiterated that the Taiwan question is the “first red line” that the U.S. cannot
Lai’s election is likely to result in an “immediate uptick” in China’s aggression around the island, and those hostilities may be expanded further when Lai is inaugurated in May, according to Axios.
China “will probably use the Pelosi visit [reaction] as kind of a baseline in telling Taiwan voters that they don’t like the way they’ve been selecting their leaders,” Douglas Paal, former State Department official, told Politico of Lai’s election. The PLA demonstrations will serve as a “political signal” to shift the behavior of both Lai and the United States, and Beijing further hopes that the Biden administration will help them “rein Lai in,” according to analysts who spoke to Axios. (RELATED: Xi Told Biden To His Face That Beijing Will Reunify Taiwan With China: REPORT)
“The CCP constantly tries to gaslight the world into believing that Taiwan’s democracy is to blame for tensions,” Byran Burack, senior China fellow at the Heritage Foundation, told the DCNF. “If the CCP wants to further undermine relations with the U.S. because the Taiwanese people exercised their democratic rights, it is more evidence that the CCP sees engagement as a tool to advance its malign goals, not a means to reduce tensions.”
John Kirby says Joe Biden and the State Department have been “nothing but consistent” on their policy when it comes to Taiwan. pic.twitter.com/AtO7vvDzEX
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 21, 2022
Should China increase its aggression against Taiwan in the wake of Lai’s election, it would likely spark Congress to increase the flow of military equipment to the country, according to Politico. Outside of that, the U.S. holds a position of strategic ambiguity when it comes to defending Taiwan; though a decades-old defense agreement between the two informal allies exists, it does not detail exactly what the U.S. response would be if China invaded the island.
Any show of defense or support for Taiwan would aggravate Beijing further. Experts told the DCNF that the U.S. should not be intimidated by China’s insistence on the Taiwan issue, even if aggressions continue to rise in the wake of Lai’s election.
“The U.S. should heed the calls already being made in Congress and national defense experts. Make the costs too high for [China] by arming Taiwan, starting with expediting the delivery of weapons systems for which Taiwan has already paid,” China Tech Threat Special Advisor Steve Coonen told the DCNF.
“We shouldn’t play into the CCP’s hands by falling for their manufactured outrage,” Burack told the DCNF. “But China’s belligerence isn’t a law of nature – it’s a tactic the CCP chooses to advance its goals.”
China’s foreign ministry did not respond to a request for comment.
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