The Republican New Hampshire primary could spell disaster for presidential candidate Nikki Haley, since former President Donald Trump is defying the “modern rule,” an NBC News political correspondent warned Monday.
Trump is leading Haley overall in the New Hampshire primary 57% to 38%, and largely holds favorability among registered Republican voters in the state with 76%, according to a Suffolk University/NBC10 Boston/Boston Globe poll released Monday. While Haley is succeeding with 58% of support among independent voters, she has only garnered 22% of support among New Hampshire Republicans.
NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki warned Haley was getting “absolutely swamped” by Trump among Republican voters, which will likely spell bad news for her.
“The modern rule in Republican primaries in New Hampshire has been if you can win the independent vote, you’ll win the primary,” Kornacki said, pointing to independents making up 42% of the Republican electorate in the last Republican New Hampshire primary. “Trump won them. Trump won the state. 2012, no Democratic race, so a lot more independents gravitated toward the Republican side. 45% of the Republican electorate was independent. [Mitt] Romney won them. Romney won the state.
“Haley is getting good numbers with independents, but she’s gonna have to get out of this world numbers with them, and she’s gonna have to do better than these polls are indicating with core Republicans. The numbers just aren’t gonna add up for her in New Hampshire, and if they don’t add up for her in New Hampshire, it’s hard to find a state where they possibly could,” he continued.
The New Hampshire primary is scheduled for Tuesday, which is currently a direct race between Trump and Haley. Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign Sunday after losing the Iowa Caucus to Trump by a wide margin. The former president won the Iowa Caucus with a historic 51% of the vote, whereas DeSantis received 21.2% and Haley garnered 19.1%. (RELATED: Nikki Haley Says Iowa Made GOP Primary ‘A Two-Person Race’ After Placing Third)
Trump is defeating Haley on a national level with 66% favorability, while the former United Nations ambassador currently holds 12.3%, according to FiveThirtyEight.